March 4, 2020
Global: Of the 92,303 cases confirmed worldwide, 48,189 have recovered, leaving 44,114 still sick.
China: It appears that the worst of the virus illnesses has peaked in China. China’s new cases were 125 yesterday while serious cases have dropped by 271 and recovered individuals was up 2,805. Of the confirmed cases, 32,775 remain. At this pace, the epidemic should be essentially over by mid-April.
Stable: Other early receivers of the virus also seem to be stabilizing – Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan
Growth: Korea has 5,186 cases up 851 yesterday. Europe has 2,700 with 2,036 in northern Italy.
US: Only 106 cases confirmed, HOWEVER, we aren’t testing, we aren’t checking people coming in from Europe or most countries in Asia. We don’t know.
Future: The illnesses should dissipate within 2 months
Supply chains are broken (Anne’s sister works for a freight forwarding company – it is tough to get shipments toward Asia, and nothing is coming back. West coast ports are running out of containers to fill for goods going to Asia because none are coming in to be unloaded and become the empty. Experts who track and manage supply chain logistics say that this will take six months at least to get settled out, and that is for the Asia area. We still haven’t seen the containments affect North America or Europe except for northern Italy.
There is no question about people changing their behaviors – shopping, travel, being around other people. This will last beyond the illnesses.
We need to be on watch for whether this unexpected “event” will push the World and the US solidly into recession.